Would You Predict that the PS2 Could be #1 Again?

I did. The PS2 was the #1 selling non-hand held console last month, beating out the Wii by over 10% and the 360 by just under 50%.

Some other interesting statistics:

Interestingly, the PS3 was the only new console to see an increase in sales for the month. Wii sales were down 22 percent and Xbox 360 down 12 percent. … PS3 saw a month-over-month increase of 2% with sales…

This is likely due to the launch last month in Europe, creating renewed demand for the PS3.

As a side note, the number one over all console is the DS hand held by Nintendo, selling nearly double that of the PS2. Here’s the actual numbers for those of you too lazy to read:

  1. Nintendo DS – 508K
  2. PlayStation 2 – 280K
  3. Wii – 259K
  4. Xbox 360 – 199K
  5. PlayStation Portable – 180K
  6. Game Boy Advance – 148K
  7. PlayStation 3 – 130K
  8. GameCube – 22K

Wow! Google’s Profits Up 69%!

Google’s profits are up 69% for the quarter since a year ago. They beat expectations from analysts across the board.

Even while they increased capital spending by 73%, they still made a huge gain. Most analysts were predicting a bad quarter due to the increased spending. But their profit margin also grew by 1.4% to 63.5%. Their sales went up 66% in the same period. Their total revenue for the quarter: $3.66 billion.

Another interesting factor is the internationalization of Google:

Sales outside the United States now represent 47% of all of Google’s revenues, compared with 42% in 2006. That upward trend should continue, Google executives said.

It’s interesting to think just over half of all Google users are in the US! They have a ton of room to grow, which makes one realize just how much bigger they could become.

This comes only days after Yahoo and Microsoft were shown to be bleeding away market share to Google. It was announced only days ago that Yahoo’s revenues declined by 11%. Consequently, their stock also fell 12%, showing just how valuable search is to Yahoo. I really hope Yahoo realizes the pile of gold they are sitting on before it’s too late… That, or they need to move away from the search business and focus on their amazing content business (music, pictures, social networking, chat, email, videos, etc.).

So with this unstoppable growth, what’s next? Why, expanding into new markets of course. Google is now focusing more energy than ever in diversifying its business model, as shown by its recent $3.1 billion commitment to buy DoubleClick, one of the largest pay-per-action advertising firms on the net. It’s very possible that we can expect more purchases by Google this year as it tries to use its cash surplus to get even further ahead.

If anybody is paying attention: this is in direct opposition to what Google’s CEO said last month about his intention on buying other companies. It’s hard to assess why he would mislead the public on that issue, but it likely has to do with keeping his lips sealed about pending deals. Still, it leaves the door wide open about what Google plans to do with all of this excess cash. Most likely, we should see them buying up more companies while they have the cash flow to cement their lead.

Google Makes StumbleUpon Competitor

Now this is an interesting development to an already busy day: Google has released a “stumble” like feature into their toolbar.

Google has been tracking user queries for several years now. However, this tracking was mostly unused, at least not as a readily visible enhancement. But today, Google added a new “My Picks” button into the Google Toolbar. It works by showing you pages that other people, similar to you, have visited.

Stumble is based off of user submitted content, whereas Google’s tool works in automation. I use Google to do a lot of programming related querying, so will I see nothing but Java reference pages? Not likely. From my interpretation of things, it also tracks general browsing behavior of its toolbar users to determine what to show. So it might correlate me to users of Slashdot, and thus send me to a recently popular article there. I arrive at this conclusion based on the second feature Google introduced today: a customized Personalized Homepage tab.

For people who don’t have the toolbar installed, they can still check out the feature by adding a “recommendations” tab to their personalized homepage (see image). As you can see, it has recommended groups, videos, and even news. Clearly this stuff isn’t necessarily content that is searched for, but likely content that is being browsed by toolbar users. If so, this is an impressive union of products by Google and lives up to their recent commitment to integrating their products instead of creating new ones.

recommended searches on personal homepageI’m glad to see Google finally utilizing this data in a more interesting way. It was like a treasure chest they didn’t want to open or something.

The timing of all of this is very weird. It was only hours ago that the rumor broke that eBay was about to buy StumbleUpon. So where’s this put eBay and StumbleUpon?

It puts the $40M+ buyout into perspective. It’s possible that Stumble saw this coming and wanted to be bought out ASAP. Meanwhile, eBay wanted a foothold into the toolbar market so that they could get a piece of the toolbar search market pie. I still think eBay could have spent their money better, but for all intents and purposes StumbleUpon investors made a safe bet by cashing out.

I can’t say the same for eBay. By eBay’s logic, any big website should buyout any other toolbar makers in an attempt to steal search traffic from Google.

Of course, Yahoo and Microsoft can tell you why such a plan is completely futile, at least right now. After all, they have their own toolbars, dedicated search technology, strong brand recognition, and made several notable enhancements to their search engines in the past year, yet they are still bleeding away market share.

Note: I would have used a screen shot of my own recommendations, but I have had search history tracking disabled for some time now. Perhaps in a few days I’ll see able to see what sort of stuff Google recommends.

What the Hell. eBay Bought StumbleUpon.

Dude. What is wrong with the executives over at eBay? They just bought StumbleUpon.

I classify this in the same business “smart-ness” as the Skype buyout from a few years ago (a total waste of $2.6 billion).

eBay saw something cool with lots of traffic and decided to buy it. Just because it has money doesn’t mean you should buy it. You don’t see General Motors buying out 7-Eleven, and you never will. When people from a completely different industry with no expertise in your business model suddenly are in charge, shit starts to hit the fan.

What does eBay have to gain from Stumble? Traffic. But it’s not the kind of traffic that benefits eBay. People who Stumble are looking for interesting reads, funny pictures, cool videos, or anything else to waste time. It’s not about shopping, it’s not about auctions, and it’s certainly not targeted enough to be efficiently used to point visitors to eBay auctions.

What does StumbleUpon have to gain from this buyout? Pretty much nothing. If I was an investor, I would flee (sell my shares). The only “good” eBay will bring is stumbles to their auctions. Wait, that’s not good at all. Stumble is an entertainment site, whereas eBay is an eCommerce site. The eBay executives obviously know this difference, but I believe they are overestimating the ease of converting this traffic into revenue.

“Oh, you voted up the Wii article so you must want to see Wii auctions!” I really hope that’s not where Stumble ends up, because I’d seriously stop using it. Stumble is about anonymous voting that lets the quality float to the top. The only time you’d ever see an eBay auction is when it’s a gag auction that everybody can laugh at.

StumbleUpon is a service that helps people waste time. You click a button and it sends you to a random website. People that see these web sites vote them up. This makes subsequent “stumbles” better targeted and of higher quality content. The whole thing is far more addictive than it sounds. And, currently, the quality of the stumbles are awesome. They make money by letting advertisers purchase traffic, but it is done discretely, and the advertisers are filtered to ensure quality.

Over all, this is one of those deals where a company got bought out so that its new owner can accidentally smother it.

Google Makes the Best Mashup Service Ever

Google just introduce a new RSS Feed JavaScript API. At first, I didn’t get why it was so useful, but after reading up on it, I realized its power.

First, it simplifies RSS parsing. This is awesome on its own level just because that can be a pain sometimes.

But the true power in this API is that it overcomes a critical problem in JavaScript in a safe and manageable way: you can read data from multiple domains. For those of you unaware, JavaScript has a limitation: you can only access one external domain in your script. When you try to get data from a second domain, JavaScript barfs up security warnings. This is there as a safety net so that developers don’t accidentally leave a security hole that lets some hacker throw in their JavaScript code that talks to the hacker’s server.

Google’s new API lets you side-step the entire issue by taking everything through Google. You can take a feed from Slashdot, Digg, and your favorite blog, all on one page, all at once, without having to use otherwise lame and unnecessary workarounds (using proxies or “middleman” scripts).

As I mentioned, the API makes parsing simple. Check out this example:

  1. var feed = new google.feeds.Feed('http://www.digg.com/rss/index.xml');
  2. feed.load(function(result) {
  3. if (!result.error) {
  4.     for (var i = 0; i < result.feed.entries.length; i++) {
  5.       var entry = result.feed.entries[i];
  6.       alert(entry.title);
  7.       alert(entry.content);
  8.     }
  9.   }
  10. });

At first glance, I know it looks like regular JavaScript. But if you look carefully, it is very intuitive.

  1. The first line grabs the RSS feed from Digg and creates a new feed object in feed
  2. The feed is loaded.
  3. If there is no error…
  4. Go through each item.
  5. Get the entry.
  6. Display the title of the entry.
  7. Display the content of the entry, etc.

While this isn’t going to be a huge step for the advanced developers out there, it will be significant for those of us who are too lazy to or didn’t know how to work around JavaScript’s domain security model. The added ease of parsing feeds will be huge for developers who aren’t familiar with parsing XML (note: it is a huge PitA).

Thanks, Google.

The End of Good Stuff: Automated YouTube Take Down Notices

Quickly becoming one of the most talked up pieces of vaporware (okay, that’s not true), it seems Google is finally “very close” to enabling their “Claim Your Content” filtering system.

My main question is how the hell does it work?

It is supposed to automatically identify copyrighted content. This sounds impossible. How do you distinguish between fair use and infringement? What if I mash up a parody video combining elements of other videos? That is protected by law. How is YouTube going to keep people from maliciously (and believe me, they will) claiming material that they really have no right to?

For anybody who mentions things like “look certain patterns in the video…,” I reiterate the importance of protecting free speech: everybody has a right to report on, make fun of, or comment on any copyrighted material out there. That includes using it, so long as you don’t rip the entire thing. Any sort of automated scanning would fail to recognize such fair use.

However, if Google’s technology works, they will murder their competitors. Much like the idea of the digital transmission right, creating the one and only copyright safe haven will make YouTube powerful. It will be the center of user-generated content as well as licensed content. This is because once Google has this filter in place, the once-angry Viacom and friends will come back with arms wide open.

More importantly, it puts their competitors in deeeeeeeep trouble, especially if Google spent the past year patenting their new technology. It makes Google’s attempt a clear stab at respecting copyright, while everybody else just looks like thieves.

Of course, looking like stealing never really stopped something on the web. Nobody cares. Well, not you and I. But without the deep pockets of Google, what video site can withstand a billion dollar lawsuit? And that’s just from Viacom (hint: there are more owners out there).

Still, I think this ushers in the end of a great era. You know, sort of like what it felt like when Napster was finally taken offline. Not that BearShare, Morpheus, Kazaa, Lime Wire, torrents, and other things didn’t pop up afterwards and replace it.

So long YouTube of the wild-wild-west, we’ll miss you (as we move to your cooler to-be competitor that doesn’t have filters)!

Proof That Web Stats Are Bogus

While it was no secret that counting website visitors is notoriously inaccurate, comScore has released a study that indicates cookie tracking can over represent your visitors by a factor as high as 2.5.

Some interesting highlights in the article:

  • 7% of computers account for 35% of all cookies
  • 31% of Internet users cleared cookies during the month of the study
  • Only 4% of Internet users delete third-party but not first-party cookies
  • Traffic overestimation can be up to 150%

This is interesting because many online tools such as Google Analytics (which I use) leverages cookie track visitors. This is an example of a “third-party” cookie. The cookie is used to track when a visitor returns.

There is some good news: If this is the case, return visitor rates may be far higher than what is reported. Cookies are used to track return visitors, so if those cookies are getting wiped out, using the same logic, I can conclude my return visitor rate may be up to 2.5x greater. 😉

The alternative is to use server side tracking such as Awstats, or some combination. In reality, I don’t really care how many visitors I have, but it’s still an important thing to keep in mind.

MySQL 5 and Condition

The word “condition” is a reserved name in MySQL 5, apparently. It was not in MySQL 4. Thus, if you have a query where you do something like this:

SELECT the_field_name AS condition FROM the_table

That causes problems.

Why the iPhone Might Be Able to Swap Music

It has been confirmed that Apple is delaying the release the next version of its operating system so that it can focus more attention to the iPhone. At a time when Vista was just released, it could definitely hurt Apple to delay their OS. What was so important that it needed to delay OS X by four months?

Music sharing.

I am going to make an unusually bold prediction and guess that Apple is going to add media swapping into the iPhone. To support this theory (purely a theory!), I present you some facts I feel are relevant:

  • The iPhone has wireless LAN functionality. Music sharing is a pure software upgrade.
  • Something is being developed now that wasn’t originally planned for the iPhone. Developers were pulled from OS X, and in enough volume to slow down the project by four months. They are working on something that is closely related to the operating system, such as modifying the Fair Play DRM scheme.
  • The announcement to delay OS X came out today, but the cause must be traced back a few weeks. The decision to move resources for such an important project (OS X) could not have taken one day. Thus, the decision may have been made recently, but it must have been in the works for several weeks. Something happened in the last several weeks that directly influenced this delay.
  • EMI announced they would opened up their music catalog a few weeks ago. The songs are to be available DRM free starting May 1, one month before the iPhone is released. Apple must have known about this at least a few weeks prior to the announcement date. This places this news item squarely in the middle of the target timeline.
  • It has been noted that the decision to remove DRM was entirely EMI’s initiative. This is a key point. If EMI approached Apple, any corresponding decision regarding the iPhone was made in reaction to EMI’s announcement. This would have left Apple scrambling to catch up to the aftermath of the announcement, rather than being fully prepared going into it. The timeline is further validating by taking into consideration the secondary negotiations Apple had to make with EMI related to such a feature, as well as with the other labels.
  • Microsoft has indicated they want DRM-free music in the Zune. If the Zune comes out as a DRM-free sharing device, Apple may lose significant market share. Even a reduced DRM version would help the Zune a lot.

I believe this makes sense on many levels:

  • It would destroy the entire premise of the Zune, killing Microsoft’s ambitions in the music player market.
  • The iPhone distinguishes itself as a sharing device too. This adds a ton of value to the product. It also makes it the only phone on the market with such a feature.
  • It requires no changes to the hardware, keeping manufacturing costs exactly the same.
  • It would hasten adoption of the product, even at its high price.
  • It distinguishes the iPhone from the iPod on another dimension, no longer making it a simple “hybrid.”

Final clarification points:

  • I am not saying all sharing would be DRM free — just the stuff that is already DRM free. This on its own is a huge edge over the Zune. It also completely redefines the music player market.
  • Sharing Fair Play media would require alterations to the fundamental workings of the technology. This would require developers that work with Fair Play a lot, such as certain OS X developers, which makes sense.
  • Changing Fair Play might effect iTunes, iPod firmware, and OS X. A new version of iTunes just came out, and nobody needs a press release about iPod firmware updates being delayed. The reallocated human resources would compound the delay to the OS.
  • If this happens, you can expect a new generation of iPods to appear in 2008 that share this functionality.

I know my theory is crazy. Give it some thought and let me know what you think. 😉

Update: Wi-fi iPods are now rumored later this year.